tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post8629614967616451094..comments2024-01-22T16:29:52.183+05:30Comments on Value Investing: An Intutive Approach to Investing: Mr.Ajay Piramal - Businessman Stepping In Shoe of A Value InvestorDhwanilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02537043667425952923noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-71157999068134105502013-06-25T20:08:28.056+05:302013-06-25T20:08:28.056+05:30Hi Dhwanil,
Do you know any reasons why this is i...Hi Dhwanil,<br /><br />Do you know any reasons why this is in continous down swing lately? Anything which happened with business or just markets mood swings?<br /><br />Thanks again for your valuable posts!<br />S@Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07614092577839549479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-7118810503709526412013-03-12T18:25:25.390+05:302013-03-12T18:25:25.390+05:30Saurav Jalan said...
Hi Dhwanil,
Nice post indeed.... Saurav Jalan said...<br />Hi Dhwanil,<br />Nice post indeed. I also own shares of Piramal Enterprises and like you I am also satisfied by the outcome post Abbott deal. Given the limited downside risk, I was never worried as I felt that cash in the hands of a rational and honest person carry less risk as compared to others. <br />Also,there are many businesses where people are more important than anything else. Investment management being one such example.People who invest with a good portfolio manager do not know where their money would be deployed. What they do know is as and when opportunity comes the funds would be deployed rationally and intelligently.<br />Low-risk with uncertainty can produce phenomenal outcomes.Google and Microsoft are few examples as the downside financial risk in their starting up days was very limited and upside we all are aware ! Who knows Piramal Enterprises can expose its investors to positive black swans!<br />It requires character to stay detached from external noise and simply meditate on maximizing shareholder's value/wealth.Very smart people lack such traits but at the same time people like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ajay Piramal, Ajit Jain(BRK Reinsurance), Dilip Sanghavi(Sun Pharma) and many more are living practitioners of that.Saurav Jalanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10000431122613360519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-27415932241919639302013-03-12T18:14:13.007+05:302013-03-12T18:14:13.007+05:30This comment has been removed by the author.Saurav Jalanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10000431122613360519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-28542003522680276632013-03-10T03:06:55.508+05:302013-03-10T03:06:55.508+05:30Buying a stock when it trades at a deep discount t...Buying a stock when it trades at a deep discount to its actual value is the best way to reduce your risk when investing in stocks.QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARShttp://www.zipleaf.us/Companies/The-Manhattan-Calumet-Value-Stock-Hotlinenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-36799457375416715402012-12-05T03:18:47.498+05:302012-12-05T03:18:47.498+05:30I have been a value investor for a long time. Valu...I have been a value investor for a long time. Value investing is all about buying a stock for 10 dollars when the real value of the stock is 20 dollars.Dennis The Menacehttp://www.manhattancalumet.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-62862485626573398142012-11-24T08:07:05.108+05:302012-11-24T08:07:05.108+05:30interesting thoughts... I agree with you on a wide...interesting thoughts... I agree with you on a wider moat.But at the price at which the scrip is available, not a lot of things need to go right for it to realize value.<br />There is a lot of upside potential but to get good returns not everyone of them needs to be right!!!<br /><br />Balajihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12256057815673876312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-12292067549859022512012-10-23T15:25:23.627+05:302012-10-23T15:25:23.627+05:30Hi valueinvest30,
my e-mail id is desaidhwanil@hot...Hi valueinvest30,<br />my e-mail id is desaidhwanil@hotmail.com<br /><br />Best Regards<br />Dhwanil DesaiDhwanilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537043667425952923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-64651790565777165062012-10-21T02:05:46.768+05:302012-10-21T02:05:46.768+05:30Hi Dhawnil,
Recently came acorss your blogs. Excel...Hi Dhawnil,<br />Recently came acorss your blogs. Excellent work. Quickly gone through most of your last 2 yrs blogs. <br />Have prepared fact sheet about stock ideas discussed here. Want to share with you. Would you mind sharing your emaild with me? Or you can ping me at valueinvest30@gmail.comvalueinvest30https://www.blogger.com/profile/07378801652867771480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-21428121133614068752012-10-17T23:47:14.497+05:302012-10-17T23:47:14.497+05:30Hi Dhwanil,
My mistake, missed out 1 in 152 if th...Hi Dhwanil,<br /><br />My mistake, missed out 1 in 152 if the number is 152 million in comparison to 180 million of Airtel then ur calulations are 110% correct.<br /><br />Dhwanil wat are your thghts about future of airtel.<br /><br />Secondly, do some blogging on digitalisation of Cable TV. I am personally bit bullish on all media houses as their subscription revenues are bound to inc.Zero Point SomeOnehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12687303605569245335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-59516766781122595182012-10-17T12:54:54.606+05:302012-10-17T12:54:54.606+05:30Hi Karun,
According to latest numbers in August ...Hi Karun, <br /><br />According to latest numbers in August 2012, Airtel has 186 million customers while Vodafone has 152 million customers in India. Frankly, It is difficult to do a elaborate comparison of Bharti and Vodafone as Vodafone India details are scarce. However, I feel considering little differential in customer base in terms of scale (as we are talking about 15-20% differential), similar range of EBIDTA and international group credentials will help vodafone India command valuation equal to Airtel. Also one should keep in mind that current valuations are based on uncertain policy environment in the sector and subdued market condition. So, though, I do not have elaborate quantitative framework to back my numbers, just rough calculations with some very primary and basic understanding of the market/valuation, my gut feel is (which very well may be wrong) Vodafone can command valuation similar to that of Airtel. <br /><br />Best Regards<br />Dhwanil DesaiDhwanilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537043667425952923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-75911552593226919772012-10-15T20:24:04.755+05:302012-10-15T20:24:04.755+05:30hi Dhawnil,
Good post and have been following Pir...hi Dhawnil,<br /><br />Good post and have been following Piramal closely after Prof. Bakshi did post detailed analysis on his blog. Yes, the stock is cheap given the limited downside but there are few things which I don't get and little bit sceptical.<br /><br />1. Salaries to the family is itself very high given they have majority of shareholding. Not so high though compared to likes of Jindal's.<br />2. Entry into Financial services - they paid 225 crores for a business of 28 crores and 9 crores of profit. I think it's steep valuation. Although, I don't understand that business, I am sure there is reasoning behind it.<br />3. Only route to get into business would be acquisition and as you know 90% of acquisitions are a failure although Mr. Piramal has higher degree of success in the past. This however doesn't guarantee future success as well.<br /><br />I have small holding but still skeptical on few of the things like the above points. Need to see wider Moat for the company to put large bet on it. Let me know your thoughts! <br /><br />thanks,<br />IgnatiusIgnatiusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-36032844275657282472012-10-14T13:46:01.934+05:302012-10-14T13:46:01.934+05:30Dear Dhawnil,
I am a regular follower of your blo...Dear Dhawnil,<br /><br />I am a regular follower of your blog.<br />Want to share a minor point.<br />Bharti has 118 million users where as Vodafone as 52 million users. Therefore I think it would be a better idea to take Vodafones market cap at arnd 60000 Crs and not 1 lac cr.<br />Wat re your thghts on the same??<br /><br />Karun SandhaZero Point SomeOnehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12687303605569245335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-81174736580443762022012-10-10T19:49:59.018+05:302012-10-10T19:49:59.018+05:30Hi Rudra,
Yes, I think we need to be devil's ...Hi Rudra,<br /><br />Yes, I think we need to be devil's advocate to understand the downside and risks. Let me answer your question specifically.<br /><br />- Even today, Piramal's business is surrounded with lots of uncertainty. Say when Vodafone investment matures and receivables from Abbott flows, what will happen to 8000-10000 crores money flowing into the company? where will he invest? may be he will partly retire debt. With rest of the money, Will he make a new acquisition or he will simply make another opportunistic investment? will money spent on R&D be productive and result into cashflow in future? <br /><br />- Secondly, if one starts evaluating PHL business as any one evaluates other businesses i.e. EPS/Cash flow/P/E parameters, will anyone invest? How about quarterly losses reported for last two quarters? Most of the people who do not go to the depth of the story and have faith in Mr.Piramal and his abilities will think, it is not worth remaining invested.<br /><br />- Analyst love DCF! and how do you value PHL on DCF basis when even Mr.Piramal doesn't know where the cash flow is going to come from (becoz he doesn't know where he is going to invest huge surplus cash!)<br /><br />Dhwanilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537043667425952923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-89927696363083372612012-10-10T19:35:39.535+05:302012-10-10T19:35:39.535+05:30Fine post Dhawnil,
The sentence " Yes, over ...Fine post Dhawnil,<br /><br />The sentence " Yes, over last few months, I have witnessed a slow but steady transformation in my feeling towards Mr.Piramal from curiosity to respect to awe." sums up quite well what i have experienced too. Good thing is, it's still available at a very reasonable valuation for people who might be making up their mind late. It's my top holding, invested regularly from 450 odd levels till 260 odd levels (via Piramal Life Science). <br /><br />RegardsRajanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-63675494911971394422012-10-10T11:49:02.246+05:302012-10-10T11:49:02.246+05:30Thanks Anil. I also got introduced to PHL and Mr.P...Thanks Anil. I also got introduced to PHL and Mr.Piramal through Prof.Bakshi's blog and after digging on my own, felt even more convinced. I am sure as Prof. Bakshi says, serendipity will come into play sooner or later!<br /><br />Best Regards<br />Dhwanil Desai<br />Dhwanilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537043667425952923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-53828752511754996352012-10-10T11:46:25.963+05:302012-10-10T11:46:25.963+05:30Hi Saurabh,
Great post from your side as well. I...Hi Saurabh, <br /><br />Great post from your side as well. I completely agree with behavioral traits that Mr.Piramal has displayed till now surely give lot of comfort to shareholders that their money are highly unlikely to be deployed in suboptimal manner.<br /><br />Best Regards<br />Dhwanil DesaiDhwanilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537043667425952923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-16480534245595677062012-10-10T11:40:13.489+05:302012-10-10T11:40:13.489+05:30But still my apprehension towards investing my mon...But still my apprehension towards investing my money based on One person is preventing me to invest into Piramal It might turn out to be a blunder like if someone said same thing of Buffet in early 80s and stayed away.<br /><br />But i would like to know more about the next level of management and their capabilities which should increase once conviction that its not just about Ajay but the process of the groupAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-37265936202112218852012-10-10T11:21:09.540+05:302012-10-10T11:21:09.540+05:30thanx a lot such a valuable info.
thanx a lot such a valuable info.<br /><br />Gaurav Chandakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09283671996767918998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-34251738747669915062012-10-10T08:19:23.099+05:302012-10-10T08:19:23.099+05:30Another great post Dhwanil
I believe stocks like ...Another great post Dhwanil<br /><br />I believe stocks like Piramal Healthcare provides opportunity to benefit from positive swans while protecting the downside. Looking another way, it provides around 4% dividend yield and assuming the worst case of 4% growth growing forward and no-rerating, stock will still give 8% return. I was very much convinced by the arguments put by Prof Sanjay bakshi on his blog and bought it immediately. Anil Kumar Tulsiramhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08957135865779188117noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-7757458566904788662012-10-10T07:44:43.577+05:302012-10-10T07:44:43.577+05:30Hi Dhwanil,
Nice Post. What fascinates me about M...Hi Dhwanil,<br /><br />Nice Post. What fascinates me about Mr. Piramal is that he constantly displays behavioral traits requried for a successful investor. I have written a post on the same at: http://goo.gl/n7iIp<br /><br />Would appreciate your views on the same.<br /><br />regards,<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07346420596180833497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-735209523627178736.post-4450905912644318032012-10-09T21:14:39.134+05:302012-10-09T21:14:39.134+05:30Hi Dhwanil,
Awesome post. What I like most is th...Hi Dhwanil, <br /><br />Awesome post. What I like most is the great application of acquired wisdoms from the investing gurus. <br /><br />Let us pool ourselves out of the comfort of being in the side car with Mr. Piramal and get started with the bear case. <br /><br />Why would someone be willing to sell this great opportunity to a fellow investor ? Would love to have some views from you on this regard.Rudra Chowdhuryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15560021225817713499noreply@blogger.com