To Sell Or Not To Sell: My Viewpoints And Few Ground Rules: Part I

"To be or not to be"... are the opening words of the world famous Shakespearean play Hamlet in the context of quandary that Prince Hamlet faces with respect to weather to live a miserable life or to end the life and embrace the unknown after death.The dilemma that an investor faces is no less perplexing and multi-dimensional than the words of prince Hamlet. I am reasonably convinced that making a correct decision to Sell is as important as making the decision to Buy for generating above average returns over a long period of time. There is ample material and thorough discussions around how to make a prudent buying decision, however, I have yet to come across  a well developed and comprehensive framework on "how to sell". 

In absence of any structured framework and principles/ground rules, the decision to sell is many a times arbitrary even for seasoned investors. However such arbitrariness is counter-productive to the very objective of generating above average returns for investors. I have formed some ground rules while making a decision to sell which I refer to while making the decision to sell. Obviously, I am just a beginner in this long journey of investing world and as one progresses through this journey, these rules are likely to evolve/change based on the real-world  experiences that I will live through in the market. It goes without saying that I will end paying some hefty tuition fees in the process as well!  Notwithstanding,  stick my neck out and adhere to these rules till proven wrong...

When not to sell:

Before we start discussing when an investor should sell, it is extremely important to understand when NOT to sell. I have in my initial years made a very costly mistake because of not knowing "when not to sell". However the only solace I can have is that I have the esteemed company of some very senior and serious investors in this! I have come across many investors who have spent enough years in the market and still continue to sell for the wrong reasons. Many a times, this "cashing out early" results into a huge opportunity loss for an investor, especially if he/she has bought into a high quality business at right price. So what are some of those reason where investors feel compelled to sell without realizing that they are making mistake? Here they are

Ashiana Housing Limited: Opportunity For "Real" Gains Through Differentiated Business Model

Since my last post in mid march, the market has briskly moved upwards and sentiments have changed dramatically. Many market players and analysts have proclaimed that the "decisive victory" for the BJP led NDA in general elections is going to be the game changer. It is felt that the new government will usher in the "directional" changes for Indian economy leading to structural bull market for many years to come. This "optimism" has clearly reflected in the way market has behaved since May 16. In last 4 months, Indices have increased by 20% and broader market has outperformed indices by significant margins. Personally, I do agree that there are some palpable green shoots on number of front and pro-business and stable government can bring the "growth" back to Indian economy. However,at the same time I also believe that it is still too early to treat the current economy and business environment as "clear sky"!

For a bottom-up value investor, the market gyrations are less relevant though rising market does pose a challenge of "bargains" suddenly disappearing from the horizon! I am sure like me, many of you would have given a pass to some high quality businesses because of the steep valuations or would have stretched "paying up for quality" theory to the extreme for justifying the "buy" decision at high valuations. However, in this market it is increasingly important to focus on "value" and not get carried away by various "rationales" offered by number of market participant for paying up! In this market and with current valuations, it is important to recognize the fact that one may not encounter the opportunities to make 5-10 baggers in 3 years like it used to exist 3-4 years ago in businesses like Mayur/Cera/Atul Auto and many others. The prudent approach should be to invest in companies with strong, scalable and differentiated business models run by efficient and ethical management by paying up "fair value". In numerous companies that I have analysed in the past 3 months, I have identified 4-5 such companies which fits the bill in my opinion. In this post, I am going to talk about Ashiana Housing Limited which belong to real estate sector and in my opinion has sustainable, scalable and differentiated business model. The company is also available at decent valuations, making it all the more interesting. 

Ashiana Housing Limited:

I must admit that I too fell prey to stereotyping real estate companies and ignored AHL in spite of AHL popping up in the my stock screener number of times in last 3 years. However, once I completed my analysis recently, I realized how far the realities can be from stereotypes! I have no hesitation in saying that AHL's annual reports are the best amongst the ARs that I have come across so far. They provide clear  and accurate picture about the dynamics of the business and substantiates the same through enough information to validate what they tell about business. Management clearly articulates the risk and limitations while defining the way forward with clear road map. Even if you decide not to move ahead with further analysis of the company in this article, my sincere request to you is to read the ARs once to understand, what it takes to provide holistic and accurate perspective to shareholders about the business!  Now let's talk about the business.

Capital Allocation Framework: Game Changer for Long Term Wealth Creation: Part I

Long term and disproportionate wealth creation is a dream chased by many of us. Value investing is not-so-exciting yet perfect to tool to achieve this objective in the long run. As we all know value investing is all about investing in businesses at price substantial discount to its intrinsic value. It's all about buying "$1 worth of business at 50 cents". However, I personally feel that identifying an investment idea based on value investing principles is only half the job. It is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to achieve the long term objective of disproportionate wealth creation. We still have a missing piece in the puzzle..and the missing piece is capital allocation! What I have observed is that many a times we keep generating very good ideas but fail to allocate capital that each idea deserves. We end up over/under allocating capital to some very good and not so good ideas. 

In the initial few years of my journey in value investing, I was solely focused on stock-picking and paid very little attention to allocation of the available capital amongst my ideas. Allocation of capital was completely arbitrary. However, as I interacted more with some seasoned investors, I realized how important capital allocation was for disproportionate wealth creation! Even on most of the blogs and forums focusing on value investing, the discussion threads largely revolve around stock ideas and capital allocation is seldom discussed. I still don't know why it is so as most of the senior investors invariably point out the importance of capital allocation in wealth creation. My guess is, because the stock picking exercise is far more stimulating than following a dodged process of capital allocation.

It  is very difficult to outline complete capital allocation framework and process in this blog. However, there is an excellent discussion thread on this topic at Valupickr that I would recommend all of you to go through! It's worth your every minute that you spend on it! However, in this post I will try to present distilled ideas from the valuepickr thread and learning from some well known value investors on capital allocation principles with my own "idiosyncrasies" superimposed on them!  

Optimal number of stocks in a portfolio: This is one topic on which I have witnessed many discussions which never end conclusively! Proponent of both concentrated portfolios and diversified portfolio  pound on the other side with merits of their own philosophy and de-merits of others's philosophy. Here are some key ponderables for an investor

• One must achieve a balance between sufficient diversification and dilution in return from potential winners due to diversification. Let me give you an example: Consider two portfolios of same size 40 Lakhs but having different capital allocation.  

                    1) Portfolio A has 40 stocks and each stock gets equal 

                        allocation of 1 Lakh 

                    2) Portfolio B has 10 stocks (A subset of 40 stocks only)  and                             each stock gets equal allocation of 4 Lakh each.

       Now let's assume that in 5 years one of the stocks turns out to be a 10 

       bagger, 1 stock 5 bagger and both the stocks are common to both the 

       portfolios and rest of the  stocks generate average return of 15% 

       annually.  Following will be the performance of both the portfolio

       Port. A: 38 * (1.15^5) + (1*10) + (1*5)= 91 Lakhs= 18% CAGR in 5 yr 

       Port. B: 32 * (1.15^5) + (*10) + (1*5)= 124 Lakhs= 25.5% CAGR in 5 yr

       So the investor who diversifies highly and have substantially lower                allocation to its "winners" will generate far lower returns than the 

       investor who commits substantial capital to its potential winners.

       

       Naturally, the opposite of this scenario is if investor made a mistake and

       incurs permanent loss of capital. The returns in a less diversified 

       portfolio will be lower than a highly diversified portfolio. However, two 

       things are important to consider in loss of capital scenario 

       

       1) As a value investor, one always tries to avoid/minimize permanent 

          loss of capital. Hence if the due process is adhered to, the probability 

          of permanent loss of capital shall be less

       2) It is important to recognize that investor's limit to downside is 

           maximum 100%. You can't lose more than 100% of your money in 

           stock while theoretically there is no limit on upside. What if you                    stumbled upon a 100 bagger? your upside will be 10,000%

       

       So, how do you strike a balance? How much is good enough to diversify 

       enough to cover risk while gaining decent "kicker" on returns from your 

       "winners"? 

My personal take is 12-15 stocks provides reasonable diversification while still giving decent upsides from potential 5,10, 50 and 100 baggers!  Having 12-15 stocks on portfolio will ensure that each of the ideas get decent allocation and hence a winner can create serious wealth for the investor

Capital allocation based on judicious mix of different investment approaches:

Even within value investing framework, different investors follow different investment approach and yet generate remarkable superior returns compared to benchmarks. Even though each investment approach has its own advantages and limitations, at the heart of each of these approach remains three golden words of investing "margin of safety". Even though such as deep value investing, growth at reasonable price, high quality businesses at fair price, turn around, cyclicals and special situations.  My hypothesis based on the understanding that I have gained by analysing the investment return of various successful investors following different investment approaches is as follows:

   Investments under each investment approach behave differently under 

specific market conditions and is likely to under-perform or outperform the market under given market conditions. Hence, creating a portfolio of stock covering various investment approaches can increase the likelihood of  out-performance across varying economic conditions and market cycles. 

So stocks in one's portfolio belonging to high quality business bought at fair price (ITC/Colgate/Asian Paints/Pidilite) are well placed to outperform in the declining market because of the high predictability of the business and consistency in performance. At the same time, same set of companies are likely to under perform in rising markets. On the other hand cyclicals are likely to display quite the opposite behaviour i.e. out performing in rising markets while significantly under performing in the declining markets. Similarly, a well understood special situation is likely to provide significant out performance in declining market while may under-perform in raging bull market. 

However, this does not mean that one has to consider allocation to all investment approaches all the time. The ideas is to be open and flexible in trying and understanding various approaches instead of sticking to just one particular approach and  take advantage when appropriate opportunity arises. Having said this, two important things shall be kept in mind

• Even though investment in turn around and cyclicals can yield excellent returns if one has acquired the skill of spotting cycles and sustained recovery in ailing companies, in general, the failure rate is much higher and one is more prone to incur permanent loss of capital if the prediction about length of cycle or end/start of cycle does not work out as assumed
• Irrespective of the investment approach used for selecting an investment, the basic tenet of "margin of safety" must be followed.

I will cover some other important points in capital allocation framework in the next part 

• Capital allocation based on conviction,business quality and valuation.
• Cash allocation in the portfolio 
• Displacing the existing investment with new idea
• Rebalancing the portfolio (Sell decisions and entry of new investment ideas)

 Till then happy investing and happy Holi to you all.

        

Beginning of A New Journey: Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish

When I first listened to the famous speech delivered by Steve Jobs  at Standford University, my reaction was similar to that of many others. I was moved, motivated and challenged! But as it had happened numerous times in the past, I assumed that the effect of this too would be ephemaral. However, as years passed by, the words spoken by this self made creative genius, lingered onto my psyche much longer than I had anticipated!

"Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.

 And

"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary "

Eventually,  One more emotion that his speech evoked was  that of "determination"! Determination to follow my heart and eventually settle for nothing less than what I like doing for rest of my life with same passion.  I kept looking, with the hope that one day I will come across something which will garner my undivided attention. Something that will ignite passion and give satisfaction every time I did work. Then came a moment, when I was introduced to this concept of Value Investing.It was indeed "love at first sight!". Simple, subtle and powerful! But, as in love, the first impression and first reactions can sometimes be treacherous. One has to spend enough time with each other before making a life long commitment! Hence, I started spending more and more time to get better grasp of value investment philosophy. Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, Phil Fisher, Peter Lynch, Mohnish Pabrai, Howard Marks, Seth Klarman, Prof. Sanjay Bakshi and many other senior value investors became my "virtual" gurus! I was learning vicariously.. following the teachings of my great gurus! With all the theories and concepts in stride, now was the time to test my mettle in the battleground and start investing serious money! It's been 4 years since I started managing my personal and family's capital by applying value investing philosophy. Though 4 years is not a long time in life span of an investor, the results so far has at least given me the confidence to pursue this journey further. It is satisfying to note that in the tumultuous market of last few years, I have been able to compound the capital at more than 40%+. Also for each of the individual years and cumulatively, the fund has outperformed the benchmarks by a wide margin.  These four years have also been fabulous in terms of learning new concepts, meeting some well entrenched value investors and paying up "huge tuition fees" for the mistakes I made!

Hence, finally, I felt the time had  come to make the commitment! I have decided to devote significant portion of my time to Investing. To begin with, I will largely manage my friends and family's portfolios. The scope may expand eventually, but definitely not for now. I also intend to eventually start an investment advisory firm  rooted in value investment philosophy. My motivation to start an investment advisory stems from my strong belief that value investing is an extremely powerful and yet hugely underrated and unknown philosophy for creating disproportionate long term wealth for many ordinary mortals like me! I can add my "bit" of value to the society if I can help some people create wealth from themselves.

I also want to acknowledge that taking this decision was not easy at all! It meant making tough choices. It also meant, changing the status quo. It meant, moving out of the realms of known world to chartering into hitherto unknown territories. Though it was difficult, I had a promise to keep to myself! Once again quoting Steve Jobs showed me the way

"You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life"

One thing that I have realized in last 4 years that I have spent as an active investor: Ability to correctly differentiate between risk and uncertainty  can be very rewarding. In the same vein, it is also equally true, that not getting this distinction right can result into substantial permanent loss of capital. I only wish that I have got this distinction right this time.....

Warren Buffet partnership letters: A treasure trove for a value investor

Since last few days, I have been reading and re-reading Warren Buffet's partnership letters written to its limited partners from 1958 to 1969 and oh boy, what a pleasure it has been reading them! These letters gives very useful insights into thought process of this legendary investor in formative years of his investment management career. However what is more striking is the candour and forthrightness coming out of these letters. WB clearly articulates his investment philosophy, sets the expectations and moderates them fabulously while striving to provide a realistic picture of investment operations, its pitfalls and how the performance of such investment operations should be measured. These letters not only demonstrates clarity of thoughts and perseverance to stick with them but also the extremely strong character. My words will sound pale and insufficient to describe the richness of character and knowledge these letters carry. Hence I shall rest my desire to write any further and share the compiled letters from 1958 to 1969 here. 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/g3b89x9zdn08bxg/Warren_Buffet_Partnership_Letters_Compiled_1958_1969.pdf

It would be great to receive views on what are the key learning from these letters? Few pointers from my side

1) He created a basket/portfolio of stocks along different investment methodologies such as

 Generals: Undervalued business when analyzed from how much a private owner would pay; 

Work outs: special situations with specific time tables such as mergers, take over, de-merger etc and

Controls : where they had a management control or say in the day to day operations (resulted out of sustained buying of generals for long period of time)

This "portfolio approach" was very useful in ensuring consistent returns

2) Work out as a category was important factor in ensuring that returns from partnership outperformed the market in down years

3) WB always made it clear that this approach will substantially outperform the Dow Jones in declining market while may just match the market performance or slightly under perform Dow Jones in advancing market! 

4) Warren buffet had set a goal of outperforming index by 10% over long run and in most of the years, he made that goal "look" conservative...!

5) From a diversified portfolio, he moved towards loading up around 1965. This worked out handsomely in favour as Amex investment, single handedly helped partnership significantly outperform the index, in spite of lack lustre performance in other two categories

6) When there is no opportunity in sight which fits the criteria set by him he gave it "pass" and chose not to invest. He rather declared his inability to find such opportunities and liquidated the partnership.. a brave call indeed.

I am sure as you read through, you will gain many more insights and it would be immensely helpful to all, if you can share the same through your comments!

Hindustan Media Ventures Limited: A mispriced bet in newspaper business

Warren and Charlie's fascination towards owning newspaper business is well known to most of us! In 1973, Berkshire bought stake in Washington post and kept on increasing its stake year after year. Washington post has been one of the top holdings and one of the largest wealth creators for Berkshire, over the years. However, Warren's love with newspaper business continues unabated, till date! Berkshire, in last two years, bought 28 daily news papers for USD 344 million. Warren Buffett devoted a large section of annual shareholder letter explaining the rationale for buying newspaper business, especially when, most people in US believe that newspaper industry is on deathbed! Here is the what Warren Buffet has to say about newspaper business

"Newspapers continue to reign supreme, however, in the delivery of local news. If you want to know what's going on in your town - whether the news is about the mayor or taxes or high school football - there is no substitute for a local newspaper that is doing its job. A reader's eyes may glaze over after they take in a couple of paragraphs about Canadian tariffs or political developments in Pakistan; a story about the reader himself or his neighbors will be read to the end. Wherever there is a pervasive sense of community, a paper that serves the special informational needs of that community will remain indispensable to a significant portion of its residents.

...Charlie and I believe that papers delivering comprehensive and reliable information to tightly-bound communities and having a sensible Internet strategy will remain viable for a long time."

So, how about an opportunity to own one of the largest Indian Hindi daily business with respectable management pedigree and excellent performance matrix on very favourable terms? Let's explore it further:

About Hindustan Media Venture Limited (HMVL):

HMVL is the company promoted by HT Media limited, part of erstwhile KK Birla group. The company was part of KK Birla group till 2008, however post Mr.Birla's demise in 2008, the HT Media business was passed onto one of his three daughters, Mrs. Shobhana Bhartia. Mrs. Bhartia is married to Mr. Shyam Sundar Bhartia, the chairman of the Jubiliant group (Jubliant Pharma, Jubilian foodworks etc). As a part of restructuring exercise, the "hindi" print media business was spun off and sold to HMVL on slump sale basis along with all the assets and liabilites in 2009. The idea of spinning of "hindi" print media business was to charter a well defined growth path for the business and provide sufficient management bandwidth. In 2010, HMVL came out with IPO to raise 270 crore to fund the expansion and pre payment of loan. The shares were issued to investors in IPO @ Rs.166. 

Business of HMVL:

HMVL publishes hindi daily "Hindustan", a children magazine "Nandan" and a woman centric magazine "Kadambini". "Hindustan" is the second largest Hindi daily in the country by total readership and the third largest by average issue readership "AIR" according to latest data published by IRS in Q4, 2012.  "Hindustan" is the mainstay of HMVL's operations. Hindustan has 12 editions and more than 110 sub editions spread across the state of Bihar, Jharkhand, Delhi/NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. According to latest IRS data, Hindustan has total readership of 3.2 crores. 

Hindustan has been an undisputed leader in Bihar and Jharkhand market for many years with 68% and 46% market share respectively, well ahead of the second largest player in both the states by a wide margin. Hindustan is the second largest hindi daily in Delhi/NCR region. HMVL entered UP and Uttarakhand market before 3 years, and have reaped rich dividends from such geographical expansion. HMVL has been growing at brisk rate in both the markets. HMVL has not only emerged as the third largest player but has also inched very close to the second largest player Amara Ujala! According to the latest conference call, HMVL has broke even in UP last quarter and is likely to break even in Uttarakhand in next quarter.

HMVL's business derives its revenue largely from two sources i.e. advertisement and subscription. Currently, HMVL derives 72% of its revenue from advertising, 25% from subscription and rest 3% is from interest/dividend income. However, looking at the past trend, that contribution of advertisement revenue has increased significantly from 60% to 72%. Based on my understanding, currently, in the print media, the typical split between ad and subscription revenue is 70/30. Raw material cost constitutes 40% of total revenue. It is likely that RM cost is likely to stabilize at current level or even decrease in case of newsprint prices decline due to appreciation of rupee. 

Competition:

Daily newspaper market has largely been dominated by two or three players in most of the regions. In all the markets in which HMVL operates, the competitive landscape is no different! However, new players are entering in some of the markets dominated by HMVL especially Jharkhand and Bihar. It is possible that entry of a new player with deep pockets can change the competitive landscape in these markets. 

There are predominantly following players in the market that HMVL operates in 

Dainik Jagarn: Present in UP, Uttarakhand, Deli, Bihar, Jharkhand

Amar Ujala: Present in UP and Uttarakhand

Prabhat Khabari: Jharkhand 

Navbharat Times: Delhi/NCR

Panjab Kesari: Delhi 

Dainik Bhaskar: Jharkhand (2011) and entering in Bihar (2013) 

Follwing is the state wise competitive situation based on company's presentation and IRS data (Presentation to investors)

Bihar: Currently, only two major players in the market Hindustan and Dainik Jagarn. Hindustan has lead of more than 60% in terms of AIR over Dainik Jagaran. DB has recently launched Patna edition and if they expand aggresively(as they have done in other states), it may be the third significant player in the state.

Jharkhand: Highly competitive market with 4 players in the fray. Hindustan is the leader followed by Prabhat Khabar, Dainik Jagaran and Dainik Bhaskar respectively. However interesting thing is that gap between first three players have remained almost constant even after the entry of a new player. 

Delhi/NCR: This market is again fiercely contested market with 4 players. However, market is dominated by Navbharat Times which has been able to hold forte very well in spite of stiff competition. There is hardly any difference between second and third player i.e. Hindustan and Dainik Jagaran in terms of AIR and both have maintained their AIR over last couple of years. However, Punjab Kesari has lost readership consistently and is the only weak wicket!

UP and Uttarakhand: This market, few years back was dominated by Dainik Jagaran and Amar Ujala. However, entry of Hindustan has changed this dynamics. Hindustan has been gaining the readership at the expense of Amar Ujala while Dainik Jagaran has maintained its readership numbers in absolute terms. However both Dainik Jagaran and Amar Ujala has lost market share to Hindustan. Dainik Jagaran is still leading the market by a wide margin while the gap between Amar Ujala and Hindustan is narrowing down fast.

Financials & Ratios:

Here is the link for company's financials (Financials are only comparable from FY11)

Profit & Loss: In H1 FY14 HMVL has reported revenue of around 350 crore with net profit of 55 crore. If we annualize this number, FY 14 revenue is likely to be 700 crores with net profit of 110 crores. This translates into revenue growth of 10% CAGR in last three years while 28% CAGR profit growth. 

Company's EBIDTA margins have consistently increased from 18% in 2011 to 21% in 2013.In Q2, 2014, HMVL reported EBIDTA margin of 23%.

Balance sheet: Company has a very strong balance sheet with 36 crores of debt on total equity of 563 crores (As on H1 FY14).This translates into debt to equity ratio of 0.07. Company has cash and MF investment of around 400 crores (including non current investment of 95 crores). 

Cash flow: Company has consistently generated free cash flow from operations in all the years resulting into healthy cash position for the company.Cash flow from operations have been in line with the net profit or have exceeded the net profit in each of the last three years. Cash flow from operating activity is 57, 72 and 81 crores against net profit of 54, 65 and 84 crores. This not only indicates efficient use of fixed assets but also means that working capital management also has been excellent.

Return on capital employed: Even though company has generated respectable ROCE of 22-24% in last 3 years on the entire capital employed, the number do not reflect the actual attractiveness of the business. If we deduct the cash/investment from the capital employed and count only actual capital deployed in the business, HMVL is likely to generate 110 crore of profit on 220 crore of capital employed (fixed asset + net working capital) which is phenomenal 50%! And according to management, the operational leverage is yet to kick in...!!

Valuation:

Company has current market cap of 800 odd crores which is 7.3 times estimated FY 14 earnings. However, company is sitting on cash kitty of 400 crores which management is planning to deploy for acquisition, use it for expansion, return it to shareholders or a combination of these options. If management rationally deploys this capital and generate even 20% return it will translate into additional earnings of 80 crores, taking yearly earning to around 200 crores. Thus, after cash is deployed, effective P/E will be even less than 7, depending upon the kind of return generated on the capital. 

Moreover, according to management (both in AR and in concall), company in past 3 years have made substantial capital expenditure for upgrading their printing facilities and expanding into new geographies. In next few years, management will focus on maximizing the revenue from the investment made, increasing operational efficiencies and further consolidating its position in existing markets. Management has also indicated that this will result into operating leverage coming in to play resulting in significant increase in bottom line. 

In terms of peer comparison, DB corp, which also operates in vernacular/hindi print media and has similar margin and return ratios is trading at 19 times trailing P/E. As DB Corp covers wider geography and is bigger in scale than HMVL, it will command some premium over HMVL. Even if we assume that HMVL will trade at 25% discount to DB Corp, HMVL shall trade around 13-14 P/E. Currently, the stock is trading at 7 times FY 14 earning without considering cash deployment providing enough margin of safety and substantial upside potential. 

Currently market is punishing the company because it is sitting on large cash pile without utilizing it. This is perceived as key risk for the company as market has burnt their fingers in numerous companies where promoters have siphoned the cash through some very innovative and/or blatant means! I personally feel that given respectable management pedigree and management reiterating its intention to deploy cash in due course provide comfort to shareholders. Management in the last couple of concall, has confirmed that they are keeping cash reserves and evaluating various opportunities for inorganic growth. Management has also indicated that HMVL has a threshold limit of "war chest" in mind which it wants to preserve for inorganic growth. However, once that threshold is reached, company shall redistribute additional cash to shareholders. In latest concall, management also gave hints that company is very near to the threshold cash limit. So, it is possible that we witness some action from management on that front which will act as catalyst towards bridging the valuation gap.

Key investment rationale:

- Newspaper is a sticky business and switching cost/inertia is high 

- Typically, in newspaper business, growth in ad revenue is non linear after a newspaper approaches critical mass and scale as volume of advertisement and pricing power both grow. In UP and Uttarakhand, HMVL is approaching that inflection point. 

- Currently there is large gap between advertising rates of Amara Ujala (second largest player) and Hindustan in UP ( at least 30-40%). If HMVL continue to grow and reaches the scale of Amara Ujala, it can signifcantly increase advertisement rate ( I have compiled a comparison between ad rates from all major hindi dailies for HMVL market and if anyone wants it, I can send it over)

- Increasing literacy rates in Hindi belt is structurally good as new potential consumers will get added hence the potential customer base will expand

- Rural India and tier-II and tier-III towns are considered next growth engines for many businesses. Hence advertisement spend focused on this market is likely to go up. All vernacular and Hindi print media companies are going to be beneficiary of this trend

- There is large gap between advertisement rates charged by english dailies and Hindi/vernacular dailies. However, increasing focus on rural/tier-II/tier-III town by companies will narrow down this gap providing higher yield to hindi/vernacular dailies.

Key risks:

- Competitive intensity in key markets of Jharkhand and Bihar is increasing. any irrational behaviour by the new entrant/competitor can have negative financial impact.

- If management neither deploy cash in business/for acquisition or returns it to shareholder, market will continue to assign lower valuation 

- Management pay too high a price for the acquisition resulting into value erosion for the shareholders

One more interesting aspect! Azim Premji and his investment companies own 2.18% stake in the company.

I believe it is a good opportunity to own a solid and growing business on very favourable terms where odds of winning are in favour of an investor!

Investing in stocks:A much better alternative to starting one's own business - Part I

I have always been fascinated by entrepreneurship all my life. What has fascinated me about running one's own business is that many a times, once  a strong foundation is created for the business, owners don't work for money but money works for them! It has been my dream to start a venture on my own, one day and grow it to a level which is best in class. However, like most aspiring entrepreneurs, I  too had no clue about where to start and what to do. In last 10 years of my career, I have evaluated plenty of ideas and abandoned it for one reason or the other. Some ideas languished on commercial merits, some others lacked the scalability and few others were too big too chase given the limited capital available for investment. 

I never thought, I will find a solution to this dogma, through something called value investing. About four years ago I read about Warren Buffet, his invest style, underlying philosophy and principles of value investing. It has been a fascinating journey of learning  and unlearning (there was lot to unlearn indeed!) since then. At the heart of this philosophy was the principle enshrined by great Ben Graham that stock is not a piece of paper but part ownership in a business! This is a very simple and powerful concept but unfortunately, majority of  the investors never realize this and continue to treat stocks as piece of paper and as a result continue to get mediocre returns from their investment in stock market. However, this simple concept of treating investment in stock as part ownership of business has completely changed my approach towards investing and my urge for starting my own venture. It has dawned upon me that may be it is much better idea to invest in stocks than starting one's own business. I have debated this idea again and again and have reached a conclusion that for many of us, investing in stocks is an excellent way to passively do the business and reap the  benefits similar to running one's own business without getting exposed to disproportionate  risk emanating from vagaries of business! Here is my reasoning:

• Possibility to part own a business with small investment corpus: For a person coming from middle class, capital has always been a limitation in starting my own business. This is not to say that if there is a good idea, one will not find capital to fund the idea. However, many a times. this is the most challenging part of starting a business. So, if one wants to set up a chemical factory in Ahmedabad of reasonable scale, initial equity contribution required will be of the tune of 40-50 lakhs. This will mean investing one's savings for life in a venture, which may or may not work out. Alternatively, one can invest just a fraction of the proposed investment required for new chemical factory and part own the business of Vinati Organics, one of the largest manufacturer of speciality chemical IBB , a key ingredient for making ibuprofen. Say, if one would have invested 5,00,000 in Vinati Organics in 2009, would have more than tripled in 4 years resulting in annual CAGR of 32%! Even if one compares, return on equity, Vinati would have generate return in excess of 35%! Thus, even with a smaller ticket size, an investor can generate similar or better returns on capital employed as one would have generated by starting one's own chemical factory!

• Minimizing risk through diversification: Imagine, how many businesses one can start with 40-50 lakh? Most likely one, or may be two at the most! As on date, with the same quantum of money, I part own 12-13 different businesses across various industries. This diversification helps me mitigate the risk of losing capital entirely (which may very well happen if I own only one business for umpteen number of reasons including default on payment by one or two large customers!) as my capital is spread across various businesses and each business also has well established customer mix. Diversification also protects me from downside of generating sub-par returns due to headwinds in one or two businesses. Take example of unexpected depreciation in rupee in last one year. Had I been running one business where large portion of my raw material is imported while there is hardly any pricing power available with me. I have seen many small businesses going broke in last one year due to sheer depreciation in currency. On the other hand, current portfolio of businesses that I own consist of few businesses which are negatively impacted because of rupee depreciation (Cera/Astral) while the other set of export oriented businesses have benefited from rupee depreciation. Thus, in the end overall impact on earnings is minuscule. The moot point here is that many a times, if one has invested in a portfolio of carefully chosen quality business, tailwinds in few businesses will compensate for the headwinds in few other businesses thus, protecting investors from permanent loss of capital. 

• Access to the best managers for running the business: When one invests in stock run by competent management, one is getting access to the best managers running a business he has put his money on! As an investor one can have an opportunity to side with and ride with people who have complimentary skills, which are unique to them, and has significant value. As an investor in the company, this skill is available to you at minuscule cost, but benefits derived from such skill can be enormous! If one was running his own business, access to people having such complimentary skills is prohibitively expensive and hence the odds of making extraordinary deals/returns are significantly lower. At the folly of repetition, let me give you example of investment in Piramal Enterprise. There was an opportunity with investors to side by one of the best deal maker and wealth creator Mr.Piramal at free of cost! Moreover, the ongoing businesses of PEL were available at throwaway price after he sold his formulation business to Abbott. Similarly take example of Mayur Uniquoter. Mr. Poddar, the founder of Mayur, is one of the oldest hats in the business and has uncanny understanding of the dynamics of business. As an investor in Mayur, I have access to the skill and competence of Mr.Poddar and his team in deploying and managing the capital I have invested in. This kind of access to people would be unthinkable for someone starting his own unit of manufacturing synthetic leather.

• Buying business ownership on your own terms: This is vital. It is important to choose which battles one fights and ideally one should choose the battles where odds of winning the battle are conspicuously in his favour. Though life doesn't give you an opportunity to choose your battle, but market surely does give you the flexibility of not only choosing the battle one wants to fight but also the option of choosing the battleground and timing as well! We, human beings, are not rational all the time, especially when it comes to matters related to money! Markets, which is confluence of human opinions and sentiments, is a perfect place to look for pockets of irrational behaviour. Fear and greed, both are found, in abundance in the market. This sets a perfect stage for getting great bargains which no owner, in his right mind, would ever offer. As a businessman, this is the best place to look for, if one wants to buy businesses at substantial discount or sell them at staggering premium! So, one can wait to invest in a business at significant discount to one's own perceived value of the business. In private transaction this would have never happened. Just imagine what would happen if you offer to buy a growing and profit making company at value less than cash sitting on the books? Most likely, you will be thrown out of the door! However, as an investor in the market one can get the opportunity to invest in cash bargains of some very respectable companies many times in one's lifetime! 

• Flexibility to exit: Even if you are running a proprietary company, it takes while to complete all the formalities to close the business and down the shutter. The process is far more involved if it is a private limited company.One has to continue to meet compliance requirements till all the accounts are settled and money distributed to all stakeholders. If the business involves more than one partners,the matter gets further complicated, if some of the stakeholders want to continue the business while you want to exit. While one invests in stock,even though, you are a part owner of a business, you can  exit the business, for whatever reasons, on a click of a mouse and get the proceeds deposited in your account in two days! This, again, is extremely useful, when in your judgement, the business is going down hill, management shows lack of competence or you just have a better business to invest in! 

Having put forward some arguments in favour of part owning a business through investing in stock versus starting one's own business, I do acknowledge that there are some obvious shortcomings of only having part ownership in a business which can negatively impact one's prospects of creating wealth in the long term. But, I will keep those shortcomings and ways around those shortcoming aside as topic for my  next post! 

As always views are welcome!